Bedard Dazzles as Blackhawks Lead Preseason Upset Wave
8 games·momentum.·10:31 AM UTC
Chicago erupted on Monday night, powered by a dazzling performance from Connor Bedard, as the NHL preseason served up a full menu of unexpected outcomes. The Blackhawks' 4-3 victory over the Minnesota Wild wasn't just a thrilling one-goal affair; it was the loudest drumbeat in a symphony of upsets that echoed across the league, leaving predictive models scrambling to recalibrate.
From Winnipeg to New Jersey, underdogs found their teeth, proving that even as teams trim rosters and experiment with lines, the hunger for early-season statements burns bright. Five out of eight games defied the pre-game analytics, showcasing raw talent and grit over projected form, promising a 2026-27 season where every game will be a battle.
The Chicago Blackhawks delivered a jolt of pure energy, coming back from an early deficit to stun the Minnesota Wild in a 4-3 thriller. The United Center buzzed as the young Chicago squad found their rhythm in the second period, with Connor Bedard orchestrating multiple scoring plays that flipped the momentum entirely, ultimately securing the narrow victory.
Our pre-game model, which gave Chicago only a 45% win probability, missed the mark significantly as the Blackhawks’ relentless forecheck and opportunistic scoring proved too much for the favored Wild. Connor Bedard was the undeniable engine, recording 1 Goal and 2 Assists (+54% above his season average PPM for preseason), showcasing elite playmaking that validated the hype. His individual brilliance wasn't just flashes; it was consistent pressure.
Monday night's action was a testament to individual player impact, often defying the broader team projections. Connor Bedard's 1 Goal and 2 Assists for Chicago, Lars Eller's 2 Goals and 1 Assist for Washington, and Kyle Connor's 2 Goals for Winnipeg significantly outperformed their preseason average Player Performance Momentum (PPM) signals. These players' strong outings were pivotal in their teams' victories, especially in the flurry of upsets. Conversely, the model's misses on team outcomes highlight the volatility of early season play, where breakout individual efforts can shift the entire narrative.
Looking Ahead
With multiple upsets shaking up the early preseason narrative, teams will be reviewing their rosters and strategies closely. The performance of young stars like Connor Bedard offers a tantalizing glimpse into the future, while veteran leaders like Lars Eller are proving their continued value. Keep an eye on teams that experienced upsets for a bounce-back or double-down effort in their next games, as they look to either correct course or solidify their surprising momentum.
The New Jersey Devils served up an electric rivalry upset, narrowly edging out the New York Rangers 3-2 in a fiercely contested battle. After trailing 2-1 early in the second period, New Jersey clamped down defensively and found late-game heroics, with their go-ahead goal coming in the final five minutes of regulation, sending the Prudential Center into a frenzy.
This was another upset for the Momentum model, which had the Devils at a 47% chance of victory, highlighting the unpredictability of early-season matchups and the potent energy of a divisional clash. Jesper Bratt was a standout for New Jersey, tallying 1 Goal and 1 Assist, driving crucial offensive surges when his team needed it most.
Power Play
0/2
6PIM8
23Hits29
19Blocks11
14Giveaways18
4Takeaways6
In a surprising turn of events, the Winnipeg Jets grounded the powerhouse Colorado Avalanche with a commanding 3-1 performance at home. Despite a tight first period, Winnipeg broke the game open in the second, converting on key chances and frustrating Colorado's usually dynamic offense, holding them to just a single goal.
The Momentum model had Colorado as the clear favorite with a 56% win probability, making Winnipeg's dominant 3-1 win a significant upset that exposed potential early-season cracks in the Avalanche's armor. Kyle Connor led the charge for the Jets, contributing 2 Goals, displaying his sharp scoring touch and proving to be an unsolvable puzzle for the Avalanche defense.
The Dallas Stars eked out a hard-fought 2-1 upset victory over the St. Louis Blues in a low-scoring but intense affair. Both teams traded blows throughout, with Dallas breaking the 1-1 deadlock early in the third period and then holding on defensively to preserve their narrow lead until the final buzzer.
While our model gave Dallas a 50% chance, this technically registered as an upset given the initial slight lean towards St. Louis, underscoring the razor-thin margins in these early-season contests. Roope Hintz was instrumental for the Stars, recording 1 Goal and 1 Assist, providing the offensive spark Dallas needed to gain an edge.
Power Play
0/5
22PIM18
16Hits30
13Blocks16
9Giveaways15
5Takeaways6
The Columbus Blue Jackets pulled off a gritty 1-0 shutout upset against the Detroit Red Wings, relying on stellar goaltending and a single, decisive goal. The game remained a tense, scoreless battle through two periods, with Columbus finally breaking through in the third to snatch the lead and then stifling Detroit's attempts to equalize.
This was a definitive upset for our model, which also gave Columbus a 50% win probability but expected a more open game. Patrik Laine provided the sole, game-winning goal for Columbus, demonstrating his precision scoring even in a tight defensive battle (+25% above his average PPM for the preseason).
Power Play
1/6
12PIM8
0Hits0
0Blocks0
0Giveaways0
0Takeaways0
The Montreal Canadiens secured a tight 3-2 victory over the Ottawa Senators in a captivating one-goal contest that kept fans on the edge of their seats. Montreal built a two-goal lead by the second period, but Ottawa rallied in the third, making it a nail-biting finish before the Canadiens ultimately held on for the win.
Our model correctly predicted a Canadiens victory with a 52% probability, validating its read on Montreal's slight edge in momentum coming into this divisional matchup. Juraj Slafkovsky was a key contributor for the Canadiens, tallying 2 Goals and showing promising offensive development.
The Washington Capitals put on a commanding offensive display, defeating the Philadelphia Flyers 5-2 with a balanced attack. After a competitive first period, Washington found another gear in the second, potting three goals to build an insurmountable lead that they comfortably held through the final frame.
Our pre-game model accurately projected Washington's strength, giving them a 53% win probability, a prediction that was well-validated by their five-goal outburst. Lars Eller led the charge for the Capitals, notching 2 Goals and 1 Assist (+62% above his preseason average PPM), proving to be a potent force on offense.
The Pittsburgh Penguins showcased their veteran savvy with a decisive 4-1 victory over the Buffalo Sabres. Pittsburgh controlled the pace from the outset, building a comfortable lead through efficient scoring and disciplined play, never allowing Buffalo to find solid footing in the game.
The Momentum model correctly identified Pittsburgh as the favorite with a 50% win probability, a forecast that accurately reflected the Penguins' strong performance and their ability to convert chances. Drew O'Connor was a standout for Pittsburgh, scoring 2 Goals and demonstrating a significant offensive contribution for the night.
Minnesota Wild
New York Rangers
Colorado Avalanche
St. Louis Blues
Detroit Red Wings
Ottawa Senators
Philadelphia Flyers
Buffalo Sabres
